Posted by
James Bell on Sunday, October 15, 2006 4:09:48 PM
It is a miracle that the United Nations Security Counsel actually got something done toward an aggressor nation. Most of the time, the U.N. is very ineffective, especially when it is the U.S. attempting to get a resolution passed. Unortunately, once again, Russia and China has stopped the tough sanctions that should have been passed from going through. Again, for their own self-serving agendas. This is why nothing gets done where Iran is concerned. As a result of all of this, the Korean War is destined to restart.
North Korea is bent on defying the rest of the world. There are two viable options. War or punishing them with severe enough sanctions, that the government collapses. Enter China's primary reason for not wanting to push North Korea too hard. China doesn't want the refugees and the rest of the fall-out which, comes with a collapsed nation. North Korea wants to isolate itself from the rest of the world. They should be isolated in every sense of the word. Strangle the governement and wait for its death. Why shouldn't it die? So many other citizens have been murdered by the "nut" in power there. North Korea has to be the most oppressive nation on the planet, making being under a system of communism, almost a delightful experience.
The solution to China is to allow Japan to build nuclear weapons to protect themselves from the North Korean threat. Japan is more than able to do so and may be forced to ignore their pacifist constitution to make it happen. Who could fault them for doing so when they are right in the line of fire with North Korea? China would become alarmed immediately and it would start to better to them to deal with the refugee issue of a failed regime,than having their old rival going nuclear so close to their borders. The Russians would also follow suit because Japan would be a force to be reckoned with and have a formidable nuclear deterrent.
The world would be a lot safer if the nations did everything possible to destroy Kim Jun Il's regime through the toughest sanctions available. The second option puts the world on the brink of nuclear disaster as during the Cuban Missle Crisis.
The war option to take out North Korea's government is far more dangerous and could have consequences on a global scale. This scenario is ripe for escalation events to occur, that could trigger a wider war that goes nuclear. There would be no safe guards against keeping the nukes to the Asian theater.
If it comes to war, it would be the U.S. leading the charge with primarily the use of the Airforce and the Navy. The U.S. could bomb North Korea back into the stone age but it wouldn't win the war. There would need to be a ground operation joining the South Koreans and this would be the bloodiest war since the Vietnam conflict. The losses could be incredible because if nuclear weapons are used the thought of how many soldiers could be lost with a single blow is nightmarish to say the least.
The U.S. still has the might to show the world that it is capable of fighting a multiple front war. This would be historical as the U.S. have never simultaneously fought a war on three fronts. The major problem, is that most of the Army branch of the military is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S would have to conside using tactical nuclear weapons. If this turns out not to be an option, Japan would have to directly mobilize and enter the war.
With Russia and China sitting on the side lines watching the war unfold, would the U.S. have to worry about how much force it was using to prevent escalation of the war as in Vietnam? We would indeed. I find it very hard to believe that with the use of tactical nuclear weapons in such close proximity to Russia and China, would not draw them into the war which could erupt into a full fledged nuclear conflict. This could be the case even if North Korea was the first to use the bomb. The war would turn into the U.S./Japan/South Korea vs. China/Russia. Three nations armed with nuclear weapons on opposite sides could spell the end of much of civilization
It would be hard to predict how the other major nations would react such as those in the European Union, which belong to NATO. If the U.S. should come under nuclear attack, the NATO charter states that Europe should intervene on our behalf. These nations are armed with nuclear weapons as well.
There is no doubt that the U.S. could prevail in a war against North Korea. I don't know if all of the uncertainties of the other players involved makes it safe for the rest of the world. I hope that the next major player in this game will be Japan. What Japan decides to do next in regard to their security concerns with North Korea could make all the difference in pushing China into unison with the rest of the world, avoiding war.